Airline fares reverse course, rise in January CPI

Airline fares started off the new year by rising 0.7 percent in January following declines of 1.9 percent in December and 0.9 percent dip in November according to the monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor.

The rise in airline fares putpaced the overall CPI-U, which rose 0.1 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in December, 0.3 percent in November and 0.4 percent in October. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.


Frequent flyers know that airline fare index as reflected in the CPI don't tell the whole story.

Airlines continue to focus on increasing ancillary revenue, which carries an important caveat. While the BLS's calculations of airline fares include an allowance for checked bag fees, the BLS does not include other ancillary charges which represent an ever-larger percentage of airlines' overall revenue.

In September 2018, American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), United (NYSE:UAL), Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) and jetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) raised fees for checked bags from $25 to $30 for the first bag, and from $35 to $40 for the second. In addition, jetBlue and Alaska (NYSE:ALK) also raised date-change fees. These and other factors are not tracked in the airline fare index.

The index for shelter accounted for the largest part of the increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index, with the indexes for food and for medical care services also rising. These increases more than offset a decrease in the gasoline index, which fell 1.6 percent in January. The energy index declined 0.7 percent, and the major energy component indexes were mixed. The index for food rose 0.2 percent in January with the indexes for both food at home and food away from home increasing over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in January after increasing 0.1 percent in December. Along with the indexes for shelter and medical care, the indexes for apparel, recreation, education, and airline fares all increased in January. The indexes for used cars and trucks, prescription drugs, motor vehicle insurance, and household furnishings and operations were among those to decline.

The all items index increased 2.5 percent for the 12 months ending January, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending October 2018. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.3 percent over the last 12 months, the same 12-month increase as reported in the previous 3 months. The food index rose 1.8 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index increased 6.2 percent over that period, the BLS said in its February 13 statement.

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